Solar and wind have grown fast enough to meet all new electricity demand in the first three quarters of 2025, according to a new analysis from energy think tank Ember. Ember forecasts that fossil power will not rise in 2025, marking the first year without fossil generation growth since the Covid-19 pandemic.
The analysis shows that solar and wind are not just expanding, they are now growing faster than demand itself.
In the first three quarters of 2025, solar generation rose by 498 TWh (+31%) and already surpassed the total solar output in all of 2024. Wind generation grew by 137 TWh (+7.6%). Together, they added 635 TWh, outpacing the rise in global electricity demand of 603 TWh (+2.7%).
This surge in clean power leaves fossil generation at a standstill. Fossil generation declined slightly by 0.1% (-17 TWh) in the first three quarters of 2025. Ember forecasts no growth in fossil generation for the full year of 2025, marking the first time since the Covid-19 pandemic that fossil power will not have risen despite growing electricity demand.
The shift is driven in part by falls in fossil generation in China and India, which offset small increases in the EU and US.
In China, fossil generation fell by 52 TWh (-1.1%) in the first three quarters of 2025 as clean power met all new demand, confirming a structural change in the country’s electricity system. In India, fossil generation declined by 34 TWh (-3.3%), reflecting record solar and wind growth combined with mild weather that slowed demand growth. Together, these two markets tipped the global balance and anchored the first year of fossil stagnation since the pandemic.
Solar sits at the centre of all this. It has become the main driver of change in the global power sector, with growth more than three times larger than any other source of electricity in the first three quarters of 2025.
Behind the global shift lies another key factor: weather. Electricity demand rose by 2.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, down from a 4.9% increase in the same period of 2024. Unlike last year, when extreme heatwaves pushed up cooling needs across China, India and the US, 2025 saw milder conditions that helped temper demand growth.
The 2025 data signals that clean power has entered a new phase. For the first time outside of major disruptive events such as the Covid-19 pandemic or the global financial crisis, growth in clean power sources has not only kept pace with global electricity demand but exceeded it. The next stage will be defined by how consistently this trend can be maintained, as continued clean power expansion determines whether fossil generation remains flat or begins to decline.
